Article

Pakistan's Struggle with Terrorism:

Unveiling the Environmental and Climate Consequences (2015–2025) Article

Pakistan's Struggle with Terrorism: Unveiling the Environmental and Climate Consequences (2015–2025) Article

Summary:-

Over the past decade, Pakistan’s inability to fully dismantle militant networks has exacerbated environmental degradation and heightened climate vulnerability. Despite major offensives such as Zarb‑e‑Azb, terrorist fatalities quadrupled from 365 in 2019 to 1,438 in 2023, reflecting a persistent security challenge that diverts resources and weakens governance.Militants have directly accelerated deforestation—Swat Valley alone lost up to 15% of its forest cover between 2003 and 2009 through collusion with timber mafias—undermining the region’s natural flood defenses .Bomb blasts and training camps in tribal areas have also introduced toxic residues into soil and water, compounding long‑term pollution risks. Indirectly, billions earmarked for flood defenses and irrigation were reallocated to counter‑terror operations, with 789 attacks and operations killing 1,524 people in 2023, leaving critical climate adaptation projects underfunded . Grey‑listing by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has further hampered concessional climate financing, with Pakistan losing an estimated $38 billion in GDP since 2018, undermining donor confidence .

The result is a “perfect storm” where weakened environmental governance, security priorities, and diminished funding converge to intensify Pakistan’s climate crisis.

1. Overview of Terrorism Trends (2015–2025)

1.1 Resurgence of Terrorism

After five years of declining fatalities—falling to 365 deaths in 2019—terrorism‑related killings in Pakistan surged to at least 1,438 by 2023, signaling a renewed jihadi threat that state operations have yet to fully contain.

Despite offensives such as Zarb‑e‑Azb and Radd‑ul‑Fasaad, militant networks exploit porous borders and local grievances, leading to a rise in attacks and fatalities from 2020 onward, with 971 deaths recorded in 2022 alone.

1.2 Administrative Shortcomings

Regular grey‑listing by FATF since 2018 highlights persistent gaps in Pakistan’s mechanisms to curb terror financing, undermining both security efficacy and economic stability. . Fragmented coordination among federal and provincial agencies, compounded by corruption, has impeded comprehensive counter‑terrorism strategies and allowed extremist groups to regroup in frontier regions.

2. Direct Environmental Impacts of Terrorism

2.1 Deforestation & Habitat Loss

Militants in Swat Valley collaborated with the so‑called “timber mafia,” exploiting forests as revenue sources during periods of territorial control, and driving an estimated 15% loss of forest cover between 2003 and 2009. Illegal logging persists despite government bans, with residual militant networks and weak patrols enabling ongoing tree‑felling that accelerates soil erosion and local warming trends.

2.2 Pollution & Ecosystem Disruption

Combat operations and bombings introduce heavy metals and chemical residues into soils and waterways, degrading agricultural lands and drinking water sources; although specific field studies in Pakistan’s conflict zones are limited, broader research confirms warfare’s potential to contaminate environments with toxic pollutants .

3. Indirect Impacts via Governance Breakdown

3.1 Resource Diversion

Security spending surged as terrorism incidents spiked: in 2023 alone, 789 attacks and counter‑terror operations resulted in 1,524 fatalities, pulling budget allocations away from climate resilience and leaving flood‑defense and irrigation projects critically underfunded.

3.2 Weak Environmental Enforcement

Frontier regions suffer from regulatory gaps: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s 2014 Environmental Protection Act still lacks enforceable Rules of Business, empowering illegal mining and logging operations to continue unchecked in former conflict zones.

3.3 Restricted Climate Finance

Pakistan’s FATF grey‑listing has deterred international lenders, contributing to an estimated $38 billion GDP shortfall since 2018 and delaying concessional climate funding vital for adaptation, especially after the 2022 floods.

4. Case Studies

4.1 Swat Valley: Timber Revenues & Ecological Damage

During the 2007–2009 insurgency, militants seized control of over 80% of Swat’s forests, partnering with timber mafias to generate $5–10 million annually; activists opposing the trade faced death threats, and the subsequent 2009 floods wrought far greater destruction in deforested zones.

4.2 2022 Floods: Climate Vulnerability Exposed

The record monsoon floods of 2022 submerged one‑third of Pakistan and affected over 33 million people, underscoring the country’s heightened climate risk; widespread environmental degradation from prior conflict‑driven deforestation amplified flood impacts .

5. Human Perspectives & Community Impacts

Local voices illustrate the human toll: teenage resident Maria warned of abnormal rains in Balochistan but was dismissed, only to watch catastrophic floods devastate her community—an example of how social barriers heighten vulnerability. Meanwhile, grassroots figures like Qari Fazal Wahab, who spearheaded reforestation efforts in Swat, faced intimidation from timber mafias under militia protection.

6. Conclusions & Recommendations

Integrate Security & Environment: Establish joint units in counter‑terror operations to protect critical ecosystems and water infrastructure.
Ring‑fence Climate Funds: Legislate minimum climate‑adaptation budget shares, even during security crises.

Strengthen Enforcement: Finalize and empower provincial environmental regulations to combat illegal logging and mining in frontier regions.

Rebuild Donor Trust: Complete FATF action‑plan items to regain grey‑list removal and unlock concessional climate finance.

Empower Communities: Provide legal protection and micro‑grants to local activists for reforestation and sustainable livelihoods.

By synchronizing counter‑terrorism with environmental stewardship, Pakistan can mitigate the intertwined risks of militancy and climate disaster, enhancing resilience for its communities and ecosystems into the next decade.